Live storms — official NHC forecast
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No active tropical storms or hurricanes right now. When a storm is active, its official NHC forecast track and cone appear here. In the meantime, here is how to read a forecast when one develops.
Not an emergency alert system. This page shows the official NHC forecast for reference only and does not push warnings to your device. For life-threatening weather, follow the National Hurricane Center, NOAA Weather Radio, Wireless Emergency Alerts, and local officials.
What are spaghetti models?
Forecasters run a storm's current position and atmospheric data through several independent computer models — the GFS (American), the ECMWF (the "Euro"), the UKMET (British), and dozens of lower-resolution ensemble members that each nudge the starting conditions slightly. Every model produces its own projected path for the storm's center over the next several days. Plot all of those tracks on the same map and the tangle of colored lines resembles a plate of spaghetti — hence the nickname. No single line is a forecast on its own; together they show the range of physically plausible paths.
When the lines bunch tightly together, models agree and confidence in the near-term track is higher. When they fan out widely, the atmosphere is harder to predict and the eventual path is genuinely uncertain — this is common five or more days out. Spaghetti plots show possible tracks only; they say nothing about a storm's intensity, wind field, or exact arrival time, and they are not an official forecast. The National Hurricane Center's forecasters weigh all of this raw model guidance, apply their own expertise and historical bias corrections, and issue one official track and cone — which is what this page displays live when a storm is active.
How to read the cone of uncertainty
The "cone of uncertainty" (sometimes called the "cone of probability") is the white-and-gray shape the National Hurricane Center draws around its forecast track. It represents the probable path of the storm's center over the next five days, built from the average size of NHC's forecast errors over the past several years. Roughly two-thirds of past storms have stayed inside a cone of this size, which also means about one in three ends up outside it.
The cone is not the size of the storm, and it does not show which areas will feel damaging winds, rain, or surge. A hurricane's wind field, rain bands, and dangerous storm surge routinely extend far beyond the cone's edges — people well outside the shaded area can still experience serious impacts. Never use the cone alone to decide whether you are safe; always follow guidance from your local National Weather Service office and emergency management for your specific area.
Cone vs. spaghetti models
Spaghetti models and the cone answer the same question with different amounts of authority. Spaghetti plots are raw: dozens of individual computer-model tracks, unfiltered and unweighted, showing the full spread of what is physically possible. The cone is the National Hurricane Center's single, authoritative summary — human forecasters have already reviewed that same model guidance and more, applied historical error statistics, and distilled it into one corridor. Think of spaghetti models as the raw ingredients and the cone as the finished forecast. This page shows the official cone and track when a storm is active; the spaghetti diagram above is illustrative only, to explain the concept — it is not live model data.
Hurricane categories 1–5 (Saffir-Simpson)
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale rates a hurricane's sustained wind speed only — it does not measure storm surge, rainfall flooding, or tornado risk, all of which can be severe even in a lower-category storm.
| Category | Sustained wind | Typical impact |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 74–95 mph | Some damage: roof, siding, and tree branches; power outages possible. |
| 2 | 96–110 mph | Extensive damage: uprooted trees, near-total power loss for days to weeks. |
| 3 (major) | 111–129 mph | Devastating damage: well-built homes lose roofing and siding; power and water unavailable for days to weeks. |
| 4 | 130–156 mph | Catastrophic damage: most trees and power poles down; homes severely damaged; long-term power and water loss. |
| 5 | 157+ mph | Catastrophic damage: most homes destroyed; area uninhabitable for weeks to months. |
Watch vs. warning
Hurricane and tropical storm alerts follow the same watch-vs-warning logic as other weather hazards. A watch means hurricane-force conditions are possible in your area, usually within 48 hours — time to prepare. A warning means those conditions are expected, usually within 36 hours — time to finish preparations and follow evacuation orders if issued. For the full breakdown of watches, warnings, and advisories across all hazard types, see the weather watch vs. warning guide, and check Weather Alerts for any active Hurricane or Tropical Storm products in your area right now, using the Tropical filter.